SYNOPSIS
Low pressure will track well to our North today, causing a cold
front to move through later tonight. High pressure will build
into the area for this weekend into early next week. Low
pressure will track to our North on Wednesday, causing another
cold front to move through the area.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Low pressure continues to track well to our North toward Hudson
Bay this afternoon. A cold front trails well to the South of
this area of low pressure across the Great Lakes and into the
Ohio/Tennessee Valleys. Radar imagery as of 3 PM shows one
round of showers located to the East of the Blue Ridge. This
activity should slowly progress off toward the East over the
next few hours. There`s a bit of a break in the activity to the
West of the Blue Ridge currently, with some sunny breaks
actually developing immediately in the lee of the Allegheny
Front.
Additional showers are located further North and West,
extending from Western PA Southward into WV. These showers are
located just in advance of the system`s cold front. This
activity will slowly spread Eastward across the forecast area
later this afternoon through the overnight, along with the
surface cold front. Showers are generally expected to be light
and somewhat intermittent through the night, although there
could be a thunderstorms or two to the West of the Blue Ridge
later this afternoon or evening. Any storms are expected to stay
sub- severe. The cold front will finally clear the area by
around daybreak, bringing chances for showers to an end. Low
temperatures overnight will range from the mid 50s along the
I-95 corridor to near 40 in the mountains.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
Low pressure will continue to depart well off to our North
tomorrow. Post cold frontal NorthWesterly flow will gradually
cool and dry out the boundary layer over the course of the day.
Skies will start out mostly cloudy, but gradual clearing is
expected as drier air works into the area. Seasonable
temperatures are in the forecast, with highs generally in the
60s to lower 70s for most (50s in the mountains). Winds may gust
to around 20 to 30 mph out of the NorthWest during the
afternoon.
Areas of low pressure will pass by both to our North and South
Saturday night through Sunday night, with a narrow ridge of high
pressure in place locally. Conditions will remain dry, with a
mix of sun and clouds through that time. It will be cooler
Sunday, with highs in the upper 50s/lower 60s for most. Some
patchy frost may also be possible Saturday night or Sunday
night in sheltered valleys to the West of the Blue Ridge.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
High pressure over the region kicks off the beginning of the
work week on Monday with a weak shortwave passing to our South.
Tuesday will also be dry to start before high pressure moves
offshore and low pressure with an associated cold front approaches
from the West. Rain chances expand NW to SE across the area Tuesday
night into Wednesday and exiting by Wednesday night. Another area of
high pressure moves in behind it.
With the tight pressure gradient between the low pressure and the
high pressure on the front and back ends of the system, gusty winds
are likely during the day Tuesday through Wednesday night, and
possibly lingering into Thursday. Southerly winds on Tuesday could
gust up to 20-25 kt. Stronger NW gusts are likely behind the cold
front on Wednesday during the day, up to around 25-30 kt.
Dry conditions continue Thursday into Friday with the next chance
for precipitation approaching Friday night into the weekend.
Temperatures will be near normal on Monday in the 50s and 60s, and
warm to above normal Tuesday into Wednesday with the Southerly flow.
Highs on Wednesday will depend on the timing of the cold frontal
passage as temps drop behind it. As such, expect it cooler on
Thursday before moderating into the weekend.
AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Conditions are currently MVFR at most of the terminals, with IFR
ceilings at MRB and CHO. MVFR ceilings will likely continue
through much of the day, along with on and off showers. Ceilings
may briefly drop back to IFR tonight, before a cold front moves
through during the second half of the night. VFR conditions and
increasing NorthWesterly winds are expected during the day
tomorrow. Winds may gust to around 20-30 knots during the mid-
late afternoon hours. Lighter West to NorthWesterly winds and
VFR conditions are expected on Sunday.
VFR conditions are expected Monday and Tuesday. Dry conditions
prevail with NW flow Monday becoming Southerly and gusty on Tuesday,
up to around 20-25 kt. As a cold front approaches Tuesday night,
showers and possible sub-VFR conditions move into the forecast area
but likely don`t reach the terminals until Wednesday morning.
MARINE
Winds are currently sub-SCA level over the waters. There should
be an increase in Southerly winds this evening, and a SCA is in
effect during that time for the wider waters. A cold front will
move through later tonight, causing winds to turn NorthWesterly
in its wake. SCAs may potentially be needed in NorthWesterly
flow tomorrow. Sub-SCA NorthWesterly winds are expected on
Sunday.
NorthWest winds on Monday are expected to remain below SCA criteria
and become Southerly Monday night into Tuesday morning. As low
pressure approaches the area, gusty Southerly winds on Tuesday will
likely exceed SCA criteria by the afternoon, and continue overnight
and into Wednesday.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
Tidal anomalies have drastically increased this morning into
early this afternoon, causing water levels to rise rapidly.
Coastal Flood Advisories are in effect during the upcoming tidal
cycle for DC/Alexandria, King George/Charles, Calvert,
Baltimore, and Harford Counties, with Coastal Flood Warnings in
effect for Anne Arundel and St. Mary`s Counties. Water levels
will likely remain elevated through the tide cycle tonight as
well, and additional headlines may be needed. Anomalies should
finally start to decrease late tonight into tomorrow as winds
turn Northerly and then eventually NorthWesterly, allowing water
to drain out of the Bay.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 9 PM EDT this evening for DCZ001.
MD...Coastal Flood Advisory until 9 PM EDT this evening for MDZ011.
Coastal Flood Warning until 8 AM EDT Saturday for MDZ014.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 3 AM EDT Saturday for MDZ016.
Coastal Flood Warning until 4 AM EDT Saturday for MDZ017.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 AM EDT Saturday for MDZ018.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for MDZ508.
VA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 9 PM EDT this evening for VAZ054.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 3 AM EDT Saturday for VAZ057.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for ANZ532>534-
537-541-543.
